New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 6/17/2025

On June 17, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the New York Mets at Truist Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams with contrasting fortunes this season. The Braves enter with a disappointing record of 31-39, while the Mets are thriving at 45-27, showcasing their offensive prowess with a ranking as the 5th best in MLB.

Spencer Schwellenbach is set to take the mound for the Braves, boasting an impressive Power Rankings position as the 14th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating his elite status. Schwellenbach has a solid 3.11 ERA, and while he projects to allow a concerning average of 5.5 hits and 1.3 walks today, his high groundball rate (50% GB) could work in his favor against a Mets offense that thrives on home runs.

Conversely, David Peterson will be on the hill for the Mets. While his 2.49 ERA indicates an excellent season, his projected xFIP of 3.36 suggests he may not maintain such performance going forward. Peterson has labored at times, allowing an average of 6.0 hits and 2.2 walks today, which could pose challenges against a Braves offense that, despite its average ranking at 16th, has shown flashes of capability.

With the Braves’ moneyline at -135 and an implied team total of 4.50 runs, they might be viewed as slight favorites despite their struggles this season. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, signaling expectations for a competitive and potentially high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (90.6 mph) below where it was last year (91.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Starling Marte is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The New York Mets projected lineup ranks as the 3rd-best of the day in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Considering that groundball batters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Spencer Schwellenbach (45.9% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Atlanta Braves hitters collectively rank among the elite in the majors this year (5th-) when it comes to their 89.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+8.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.90 Units / 50% ROI)
• Eli White has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.31, Atlanta Braves 5.12

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

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