New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are gearing up to host the New York Mets at Truist Park on September 24, 2024, for a National League East clash. With only a few games left in the season, every matchup is crucial for both teams, who are fighting for a postseason berth. The Braves, currently at 85-71, have been enjoying an above-average season but find themselves trailing the 87-69 Mets, who are having a good season. This makes tonight's game particularly significant in the division standings.

On the mound, the Braves will feature Spencer Schwellenbach. Ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, Schwellenbach has been a reliable asset for Atlanta with a solid 3.61 ERA. He's projected to give up just 2.2 earned runs today, highlighting his ability to keep the Mets' offense in check. Although Schwellenbach struggles with allowing hits and walks, his knack for limiting earned runs should aid the Braves' cause.

The Mets counter with Luis Severino, who holds an 11-6 record and a 3.79 ERA. Despite these numbers, Severino is considered a below-average pitcher this season. He's expected to concede 2.9 earned runs today, and his projection for allowing both hits and walks is troubling. The Braves' potent lineup, ranked 4th in home runs, will look to capitalize on any mistakes Severino makes.

Offensively, the Braves lean on Matt Olson, who has been on a tear recently with a .450 batting average and four home runs over the last week. On the other side, Francisco Alvarez has been leading the charge for the Mets, boasting a .357 average and three homers in his last five games.

Betting markets favor the Braves with a moneyline of -145, translating to an implied win probability of 57%. Meanwhile, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, pegs Atlanta as a big favorite with a 60% chance of victory, suggesting the odds may undervalue the Braves' chances tonight. With both teams eyeing critical wins, this game promises to be a captivating affair.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of all SPs, Luis Severino's fastball velocity of 95.5 mph grades out in the 90th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jose Iglesias is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the New York Mets offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach has averaged 17.3 outs per start this year, placing in the 78th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jorge Soler has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 95.8-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen grades out as the 8th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 131 games (+28.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 98 games (+18.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.15 Units / 30% ROI)

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.18 vs Atlanta Braves 4.91

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.