New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 4/11/2024

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 11, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Max Fried - Braves
• Run Line: Mets 1.5 -130, Braves -1.5 110
• Money Line: Mets 145, Braves -165
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Mets - 40%
• Atlanta Braves - 60%

Projected Win %:

• New York Mets - 32.19%
• Atlanta Braves - 67.81%

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the New York Mets in an exciting National League East matchup at Truist Park on April 11, 2024. The Braves, who currently hold a 7-3 record this season, have been performing exceptionally well, while the struggling Mets sit at 4-7.

On the mound for the Braves will be left-handed pitcher Max Fried, who is considered one of the elite starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Fried has started two games this year, with a 0-0 record and an 18.00 ERA. However, his 4.38 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Fried will be right-handed pitcher Luis Severino of the Mets. While Severino has a 3.60 ERA this season, his 2.52 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well and is expected to improve.

The Braves boast the best offense in MLB this season, leading the league in team batting average and home runs. Their powerful lineup poses a significant challenge for Severino, who is a high-strikeout pitcher.

Defensively, the Braves have a solid bullpen, ranking sixth in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, the Mets' bullpen ranks 24th, which could be a disadvantage for them in this game.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 60%, while the Mets are the underdogs with a 40% chance of winning. The Braves have a high implied team total of 5.25 runs, while the Mets have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting showdown between two division rivals. The Braves' dominant offense and solid bullpen give them an edge, but the Mets' starting pitcher, Severino, has the potential to neutralize their power. Stay tuned for what is sure to be an intense battle on the diamond.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ronald Acuna Jr. as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball when estimating his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Ronald Acuna Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 87 of their last 153 games (+17.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 114 games (+14.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+3.60 Units / 90% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 3.8 vs Atlanta Braves 5.29

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