New York Mets VS Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 4/9/2024

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adrian Houser - Mets
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Mets 1.5 -125, Braves -1.5 105
• Money Line: Mets 165, Braves -190
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Mets - 37%
• Atlanta Braves - 63%

Projected Win %:

• New York Mets - 37.68%
• Atlanta Braves - 62.32%

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

On April 9, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will face off against the New York Mets in a National League East matchup at Truist Park. The Braves, with a season record of 6-3, are having a great season so far, while the struggling Mets hold a record of 4-6. The Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Reynaldo Lopez, who has been performing at an average level according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, the Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Adrian Houser, who has been struggling this season.

In their last game, the Braves played against an opponent that is not mentioned in the provided facts. However, their offense has been exceptional this season, ranking as the best in MLB in team batting average and home runs. Their powerful lineup, led by their best hitter Marcell Ozuna, has been on fire over the past week, recording impressive numbers in hits, runs, RBIs, and home runs.

The Mets, with their struggling offense ranking near the bottom of the league, will rely on their best hitter, Brandon Nimmo, to produce some offense. Over the past week, Nimmo has been performing well, with solid numbers in hits, RBIs, and home runs.

On the pitching side, Reynaldo Lopez has been having a good season so far, with an impressive ERA of 1.50. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may regress in future performances. Adrian Houser, on the other hand, has been struggling with a high xFIP, indicating that his performance may worsen going forward.

The Braves have a strong bullpen, ranking as the third-best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Mets' bullpen ranks near the bottom, at 25th. This could give the Braves an advantage in the later innings of the game.

According to the current odds, the Braves are the betting favorites with a higher projected win probability of 63%. The Mets, as underdogs, have a lower implied win probability of 37%. The Braves have a high implied team total of 5.46 runs, while the Mets have an average implied team total of 4.04 runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

With a .135 wOBA in the last 14 days, Francisco Lindor has been struggling at the plate.

• Recent struggles may mean the player is not seeing the ball well, is playing hurt, or has something going on that will hamper him in the short-term.

In today's matchup, Brett Baty is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.8% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Reynaldo Lopez to throw 83 pitches today (least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Typically, hitters like Orlando Arcia who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Adrian Houser.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Atlanta Braves projected batting order projects as the 3rd-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 52 games (+14.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+5.90 Units / 197% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 4.32 vs Atlanta Braves 5.29

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.