New York Mets VS Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 4/8/2024

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 8, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Julio Teheran - Mets
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
• Run Line: Mets 1.5 -110, Braves -1.5 -110
• Money Line: Mets 190, Braves -225
• Total (Over/Under):10 -110

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Mets - 33%
• Atlanta Braves - 67%

Projected Win %:

• New York Mets - 33.83%
• Atlanta Braves - 66.17%

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated National League East matchup, the Atlanta Braves are set to host the New York Mets at Truist Park on April 8, 2024. The Braves, who currently hold a record of 6-2, are having a fantastic season, while the struggling Mets sit at 3-6 and are facing a tough start to the year.

Taking the mound for the Braves is right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton, who has been performing well this season. Morton has started one game, with a win/loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 0.00. However, his 4.24 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate so far and could experience regression in future performances. On average, Morton is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 6.1 batters, and surrendering 4.8 hits and 2.1 walks.

Opposing Morton is Julio Teheran, a right-handed pitcher for the Mets. Teheran has struggled this season, with projections indicating that he may have a tough outing. On average, Teheran is projected to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs, striking out 3.4 batters, and giving up 5.4 hits and 1.5 walks.

The Braves boast an impressive offense, currently ranking as the best in MLB. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, showcasing their power at the plate. In contrast, the Mets offense has struggled, ranking near the bottom of the league in several offensive categories.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Braves have one of the best in MLB, ranking fourth according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, the Mets bullpen ranks near the bottom, sitting at 26th.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are heavily favored to win, with a moneyline of -220 and an implied win probability of 66%. The Mets, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +185 and an implied win probability of 34%.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Julio Teheran to be on a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Starling Marte is penciled in 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today, Brett Baty is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.6% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Charlie Morton in the 94th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The 3rd-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Atlanta Braves.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games (+13.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 109 games (+15.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.15 Units / 37% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 4.35 vs Atlanta Braves 5.87

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.