New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the New York Mets on August 28, 2024, both teams are looking to establish momentum in a tightly contested series. The Diamondbacks are currently sitting at 75-57, showing strong performance this season, while the Mets hold a record of 69-63, placing them in an above-average position. In their last encounter on August 27, the Diamondbacks suffered an 8-3 defeat, which marks a tough blow as they aim to rebound quickly.

On the mound, the Diamondbacks are projected to start Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been impressive this season with a 2-0 record and a 3.94 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he has benefited from some luck, as indicated by his 4.65 SIERA. Rodriguez's performance will be pivotal, especially considering the Diamondbacks' offense ranks 2nd in MLB, boosting their chances to score. In contrast, Luis Severino will take the hill for the Mets. Although he has a solid 3.84 ERA, his below-average status in Power Rankings indicates potential vulnerability against the high-octane Diamondbacks lineup.

The projections indicate that the Diamondbacks are favored, with a high implied team total of 4.71 runs. The Diamondbacks' best hitter, Corbin Carroll, has had a fantastic season, while Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been hot lately, showcasing a .429 batting average over the last week. Conversely, Francisco Lindor continues to shine for the Mets, hitting .370 with 3 home runs in the same span.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Compared to the average pitcher, Luis Severino has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 3.7 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected offense today (.314 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .331 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 72 games (+22.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 67 games (+9.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Adrian Del Castillo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+11.50 Units / 115% ROI)

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.58 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.98

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