New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick & Preview – 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On August 27, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the New York Mets at Chase Field in a crucial National League matchup. The Diamondbacks, currently holding a strong 75-56 record, are positioned well in the playoff race and boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, according to projections. Meanwhile, the Mets sit at 68-63, having a respectable season but not quite at the same level as their opponents.

The Diamondbacks are riding a wave of momentum, especially with Eduardo Rodriguez projected to start. Rodriguez has been solid this season with a 2-0 record and a 3.94 ERA in just three starts, although his advanced metrics suggest he might be due for a regression. The Diamondbacks will be looking to capitalize on their potent lineup, which has ranked 2nd in MLB in offensive performance this season.

The Mets will counter with Sean Manaea, who has had a decent season with a 9-5 record and a 3.48 ERA over 25 starts. Manaea’s numbers indicate he’s been slightly lucky this year, and he faces a tough challenge against an elite Diamondbacks offense that excels in batting average and run production.

With both teams projected to score 4.50 runs, the betting markets consider this a close contest, as reflected by their identical -110 moneyline. However, the Diamondbacks' superior offensive capabilities and a strong bullpen, ranked 2nd in MLB, give them an edge in this matchup. As they look to maintain their momentum, Arizona's lineup could be the deciding factor in this game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea has utilized his sinker 35.4% more often this year (36.1%) than he did last season (0.7%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Mark Vientos has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 95-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect worse results for the New York Mets offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 7th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Out of all starters, Eduardo Rodriguez's fastball velocity of 91 mph is in the 20th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Kevin Newman has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .293 mark is considerably higher than his .246 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 97 games (+24.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 72 games (+10.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jake McCarthy has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+8.90 Units / 20% ROI)

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.7 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.65

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