New York Mets at Washington Nationals Prediction For 7/3/2024

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Christian Scott - Mets
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the New York Mets on July 3, 2024, both teams find themselves in different stages of their seasons. The Nationals, with a 39-46 record, are struggling through a below-average season, while the Mets are hovering around .500 at 42-41, embodying an average campaign. This National League East matchup at Nationals Park marks the third game in the series between these division rivals.

Taking the mound for Washington is left-hander Mitchell Parker, who has a solid 3.32 ERA over 14 starts this year. However, his 3.95 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and might regress. Parker’s projected outing is average, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, estimating he will pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 4.2 batters, and walking 1.4. Despite his decent ERA, Parker ranks as the 152nd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he's not a strong performer.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with right-hander Christian Scott, who has a 3.90 ERA in his five starts this season. Scott is ranked 45th among starting pitchers, making him a reliable arm for New York. Projections indicate he will pitch 5.5 innings, give up 2.4 earned runs, strike out 4.3, and walk just 1.1 batters. Scott’s high flyball rate (47%) might work in his favor against a Nationals lineup that ranks 29th in home runs.

Offensively, the Nationals have struggled, ranking 24th overall. They have shown some life in the stolen base department, ranking 3rd, but their lack of power is a significant drawback. CJ Abrams has been a bright spot recently, hitting .333 with a 1.076 OPS over the last week.

Conversely, the Mets boast the 6th best offense, with strong rankings in batting average (10th) and home runs (4th). Brandon Nimmo has been red-hot, hitting .353 with a 1.228 OPS over the past week.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting an average scoring expectation. Betting markets have the Mets as slight favorites with a -135 moneyline, implying a 55% win probability. Given the Mets' stronger overall performance and Scott’s edge on the mound, bettors might see value in backing New York in this tight contest.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Christian Scott has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 7.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Mark Vientos is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

J.D. Martinez has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Because of his large reverse platoon split, Mitchell Parker will be at an advantage going up against 7 batters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jesse Winker has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 4th-worst projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 71 games (+6.55 Units / 7% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 61 games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.08 vs Washington Nationals 4.33

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