New York Mets at Washington Nationals Pick For 6/4/2024

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the Washington Nationals are set to face off against the New York Mets on June 4, 2024, at Nationals Park. The Nationals have the home-field advantage in this game.

Both teams have struggled this season, with the Nationals holding a record of 27-32, indicating a below-average performance so far. The Mets, on the other hand, have had a tough time, with a record of 25-35, placing them in the category of a team having a terrible season.

The Nationals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Trevor Williams, who has been having an excellent season with a 5-0 win/loss record and an impressive 2.22 ERA. However, his 3.82 xFIP suggests that he may be due for some regression in performance going forward.

The Mets are expected to start left-handed pitcher David Peterson, who has a good 3.60 ERA but a higher 4.51 xFIP. This indicates that he may have been a bit lucky so far this season and could face challenges in maintaining his current level of performance.

The Nationals offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 27th best in MLB. However, they have shown some strength in terms of team batting average, ranking 6th in the league. In contrast, the Mets offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB, with a slightly lower team batting average of 24th in the league.

When it comes to the pitching staff, the Nationals bullpen is considered the 26th best in MLB, while the Mets bullpen ranks as the 20th best in the league, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

In terms of recent performance, the Nationals' best hitter over the last seven games has been Joey Gallo, while the Mets' standout has been J.D. Martinez. Gallo has recorded one home run with a batting average of .308 and an impressive 1.053 OPS. Martinez, on the other hand, has been consistent with eight hits, six runs, five RBIs, and two home runs, maintaining a batting average of .286 and a solid 1.018 OPS.

Considering the projections and the overall performance of both teams, the Nationals have a slight advantage in this matchup. However, betting markets suggest that it will be a close game, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. The game total for today's matchup is set at 8.5 runs, which is average.

It will be interesting to see how the Nationals' below-average offense matches up against David Peterson, a low-strikeout pitcher facing a team that strikes out the second least in MLB. The Nationals' ability to capitalize on Peterson's weakness may give them an advantage. On the other hand, the Mets' offense will face Trevor Williams, who has been performing well but may be due for some regression based on his peripheral indicators.

With both teams looking to improve their season records, this game has the potential to be a closely contested battle. Baseball fans can expect an exciting matchup at Nationals Park on June 4, 2024.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Tomas Nido's 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) is in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The New York Mets have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 13.9° figure is among the highest in baseball since the start of last season (#3 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Jesse Winker's quickness has gotten better this year. His 23.52 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.77 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 55 games (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 53 games (+7.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• Joey Meneses has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 16 games at home (+9.60 Units / 60% ROI)

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.02 vs Washington Nationals 4.03

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.