New York Mets at Washington Nationals Best Bet – 7/4/2024

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals and the New York Mets are set for an intriguing National League East matchup at Nationals Park on July 4, 2024. Both teams have had mediocre seasons so far, with Washington holding a 40-46 record and the Mets sitting at 42-42. This game marks the fourth clash in their current series.

Jake Irvin will take the mound for the Nationals, while Jose Quintana is slated to start for the Mets. Irvin, a right-hander, has been solid this season with a 3.03 ERA, although his 3.61 xFIP suggests he's been a bit fortunate. He has an even 6-6 record over his 17 starts. On the Mets' side, lefty Quintana holds a 4.57 ERA and is 3-5 across 16 starts. His underlying 5.27 xERA hints at potential regression.

Washington's offense has struggled, ranking 24th in MLB overall, 21st in team batting average, but a dismal 29th in home runs. They do have a bright spot in stolen bases, ranking 3rd. Recently, CJ Abrams has been a standout, hitting .333 with a 1.094 OPS over the past week.

Conversely, the Mets boast the 5th best offense in MLB, including rankings of 8th in batting average and 4th in home runs. Brandon Nimmo has been on fire lately, hitting .353 with a 1.206 OPS over the last seven games.

In terms of pitching, both starters are projected to be average in terms of innings pitched. Irvin is expected to allow 2.9 earned runs and record 4.6 strikeouts on average, while Quintana is projected to allow 2.8 earned runs and strike out 3.8 batters.

The Nationals' bullpen ranks 29th according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, making them one of the weakest in MLB. In contrast, the Mets have an average bullpen, ranking 17th. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair.

Betting markets see this as a tight contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, with Abrams' recent form and Irvin's solid, though potentially overperforming, stats, the Nationals could have a slight edge. The odds indicate that both teams are expected to score 4.5 runs, reinforcing the expectation of a close, competitive game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among every team on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Ben Gamel has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.3% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Tallying 92.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Jake Irvin places in the 81st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Despite posting a .364 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes CJ Abrams has had positive variance on his side given the .051 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .313.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The 2nd-worst projected batting order of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 79 games (+10.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 58 games (+14.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Harrison Bader has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+16.50 Units / 412% ROI)

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.43 vs Washington Nationals 4.51

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