New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays Pick & Prediction – 9/9/2024

• Date: September 9, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Blackburn - Mets
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the New York Mets on September 9, 2024, at Rogers Centre, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Blue Jays, with a record of 68-76, are having a below-average season and are not in playoff contention. In contrast, the Mets sit at 78-65, enjoying an above-average season and striving to maintain their position in the Wild Card race.

In their most recent outing, the Blue Jays are coming off a tough loss to the Atlanta Braves, while the Mets lost to the Cincinnati Reds. The Blue Jays will send Chris Bassitt to the mound, who boasts an advanced-stat Power Ranking of #65, indicating he is above average among MLB pitchers. However, Bassitt has struggled with a 9-13 record this year and is projected to allow 2.4 earned runs on average today. Despite his average 4.30 ERA, he faces a challenge with a Mets offense that ranks 8th best in the league, showcasing their strength with a high team batting average and a robust home run total.

On the other side, Paul Blackburn is projected to start for the Mets. Although Blackburn's overall performance places him among the lower ranks in the league, his xFIP of 4.16 suggests he could be better than his numbers indicate. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that has had difficulty generating power, ranking 27th in home runs this season.

With an average Game Total of 8.5 runs set for this matchup, betting markets give the slight edge to the Mets at -115, but the Blue Jays, despite their struggles, could pull off an upset given their home advantage and the projections indicating a potential for a closer game than expected.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Paul Blackburn has averaged 93.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year, placing in the 83rd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

J.D. Martinez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt's four-seam fastball rate has dropped by 5.2% from last year to this one (9.3% to 4.1%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Alejandro Kirk has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph dropping to 75-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+15.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 92 games (+15.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jose Iglesias has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.00 Units / 26% ROI)

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.13 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.74

Get daily MLB picks here.