New York Mets at Texas Rangers Prediction For 6/19/2024

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: June 19, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers and New York Mets are set to clash in the third game of their Interleague series on June 19, 2024, at Globe Life Field. The Mets, sitting at a 35-37 record, have had an average season, while the Rangers, with a 33-40 record, are struggling.

On the mound for the Rangers will be left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has had a tough season, going 2-8 with a 4.19 ERA across 13 starts. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Heaney is ranked as the 208th best starting pitcher, which indicates he is one of the worst in the league. Heaney's projections for today's game aren't promising either—he's expected to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.2 innings, a below-average outing.

The Mets will counter with another lefty, Sean Manaea, who has been more consistent with a 4-3 record and a 4.11 ERA also over 13 starts. Manaea’s projections are slightly better, expecting him to allow 2.7 earned runs over 5.2 innings, which is considered average.

Offensively, the Rangers have struggled, ranking 22nd in MLB in overall offense and 21st in home runs. On the other hand, the Mets have been more productive, ranking 11th overall in offense and 10th in home runs. The Rangers' key hitter over the last week has been Josh H. Smith, who boasts a .500 batting average and a 1.372 OPS in his last five games. Meanwhile, the Mets’ J.D. Martinez has been on fire, with a .385 average and 1.330 OPS over the last seven games, including three home runs and nine RBIs.

Both bullpens are relatively average, with the Rangers ranked 13th and the Mets 17th, per advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average scoring game, and both teams have current moneylines of -110, suggesting a very close matchup.

Given the Rangers' below-average season and Heaney's struggles, the Mets might have a slight edge, especially if Martinez continues his recent hot streak. As always in baseball, the game can swing on a few key moments, but the Mets' more consistent offense could prove decisive.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Starling Marte has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph dropping to 79.4-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Harrison Bader hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Generating 14.8 outs per start this year on average, Andrew Heaney checks in at the 17th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

In terms of his home runs, Wyatt Langford has had some very poor luck this year. His 6.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.3.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be best to expect better results for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+13.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 away games (+10.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• Luis Torrens has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+13.10 Units / 262% ROI)

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.66 vs Texas Rangers 4.5

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