New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals Pick For 8/5/2024

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: August 5, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the New York Mets on August 5, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tightly contested matchup. The Cardinals sit with a record of 57-55, while the Mets boast a slightly better mark at 58-53. This game marks the beginning of a crucial series, and neither team can afford to slip as they aim to solidify their positions in the standings.

In their most recent outings, both teams faced adversity; the Cardinals fell to the Chicago Cubs 6-2, and the Mets lost a close one to the Los Angeles Angels, 3-2. With both clubs looking to bounce back, the tension will be palpable at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals will send Andre Pallante to the mound, who has had an average season overall, but his last start on July 29 was uneventful, allowing 3 earned runs over 5 innings. In contrast, the Mets will counter with Sean Manaea, who recently delivered a stellar performance against the Angels, tossing 7 innings with no runs allowed and striking out 11 batters.

Despite Pallante's average season, projections suggest that he may have the upper hand today, especially given his high ground-ball rate of 61% against a powerful Mets offense that heavily relies on home runs. The projections favor the Cardinals with a projected win probability of 56%, which is notably higher than what the betting markets currently reflect. This discrepancy highlights potential value in betting on the Cardinals as they look to capitalize on their strengths against Manaea.

Offensively, the Cardinals have struggled with power, ranking 22nd in MLB for home runs, while the Mets' offense ranks 4th with 132 home runs this season. However, with the Cardinals' best hitter, Alec Burleson, maintaining a solid performance, they could surprise. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a closely matched contest could unfold.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea's 2015-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 7th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Brandon Nimmo has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 11% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 2nd-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Andre Pallante is expected to post an average of 16.7 outs in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 89.7-mph EV last season has lowered to 87.1-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

St. Louis's 88.3-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the league: #25 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.65 Units / 47% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 46 games (+11.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 22 away games (+8.80 Units / 36% ROI)

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.67 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.01

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