New York Mets at San Diego Padres Pick & Prediction – 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Martin Perez - Padres

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face off against the New York Mets on August 25, 2024, the stakes are evident for both teams, particularly the Padres, who are currently in a strong position with a record of 73-58. The Padres are looking to solidify their postseason aspirations against a Mets team that sits at 68-62. Recently, San Diego has shown promise, boasting the 7th best offense in MLB and leading the league in batting average, which could be a critical factor against a struggling Mets bullpen ranked 21st in the league.

In their last matchup, the Padres did not secure a win against the Mets, but they have been performing well overall, putting together a solid season. Jose Quintana, the Mets' projected starter, has had his struggles on the mound, evidenced by his 6-9 record and a FIP of 5.13, indicating that he may have been riding a bit of luck this season. Meanwhile, Martin Perez, despite being ranked 207th among starting pitchers, has been serviceable with an ERA of 4.67. His expected performance (xERA of 5.40) suggests he could regress, which might give the Padres' powerful lineup the upper hand.

Offensively, the Padres are led by Donovan Solano, who has been their best hitter recently, while the Mets have relied heavily on Francisco Lindor, who has maintained an impressive .345 batting average over the last week. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets reflect the competitive nature of this matchup, with the Padres holding a moneyline of -120, indicating a tight contest is expected.

In this critical game, the Padres have an opportunity to leverage their strong offensive capabilities against a low-strikeout pitcher like Quintana and capitalize on their home-field advantage at Petco Park. Expect a close game where the Padres may just edge out the Mets.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Jose Quintana has a mean strikeout projection of 3.7 hitters today, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Harrison Bader hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Martin Perez's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (60.1% vs. 54.7% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jake Cronenworth is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the San Diego Padres in this game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .310, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .322 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 60 games (+11.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 68 of their last 120 games (+7.15 Units / 5% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+13.55 Units / 45% ROI)

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.96 vs San Diego Padres 4.82

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.