New York Mets at San Diego Padres Pick For 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Blackburn - Mets
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres host the New York Mets on August 23, 2024, the stakes are palpable with both teams jockeying for favorable positions in a competitive National League. The Padres, holding a record of 72-56, are enjoying a solid season and currently sit firmly in playoff contention, while the Mets, at 66-61, are experiencing an above-average season but find themselves looking to leapfrog into a Wild Card spot.

In their previous matchup, the Mets continued their strong play, securing an 8-1 victory against the Padres. On the mound, San Diego is set to start Joe Musgrove, a right-hander ranked as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB, despite a below-average 4.97 ERA this season. However, advanced projections suggest that Musgrove has been somewhat unlucky, with a 4.34 xFIP indicating he could improve going forward. His ability to average 5.5 innings pitched, while allowing just 2.4 earned runs, bodes well against a Mets lineup that has flashed power but struggles against high-quality pitching.

In contrast, the Mets will counter with Paul Blackburn, who has had a less favorable season, categorized among the less effective pitchers in MLB. Blackburn's 4.19 ERA is above average, but his low strikeout rate (19.3 K%) could be exploited by the Padres’ offense, which ranks 8th overall and leads MLB with a team batting average. The projections indicate that Blackburn is expected to have difficulty keeping the potent Padres lineup at bay, especially given their current form.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Padres looking like the stronger side, they are positioned as the betting favorites with an implied team total of 4.27 runs. This matchup not only highlights the ups and downs of both clubs but also sets the stage for an intriguing contest as San Diego seeks to further establish their playoff aspirations.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among all SPs, Paul Blackburn's fastball velocity of 91.3 mph ranks in the 24th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jesse Winker has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The New York Mets projected offense projects as the 5th-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Joe Musgrove has averaged 14.5 outs per game per started this year, checking in at the 12th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

David Peralta will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+14.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 83 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+13.20 Units / 45% ROI)

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.28 vs San Diego Padres 4.71

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