New York Mets at San Diego Padres Best Bet – 8/22/2024

• Date: August 22, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the New York Mets on August 22, 2024, both teams are looking to gain an edge in this crucial National League matchup. The Padres currently hold a strong 72-56 record, putting them in a comfortable position, while the Mets sit at 66-61, showing signs of competitiveness but not quite in the same league as their opponents this season.

In their last game, the Padres suffered a loss to the Minnesota Twins, while the Mets got a walk-off win over the Baltimore Orioles with New York looking to carry the momentum from that game into this one.

Dylan Cease, projected to start for the Padres, has been a reliable figure on the mound, boasting a Win/Loss record of 12-9 and an excellent ERA of 3.46. His ability to average 7.6 strikeouts per game could be a significant factor against the Mets' lineup. However, Cease's high flyball rate (39 FB%) could play into the hands of the Mets, who rank 4th in MLB with 132 home runs this season.

Luis Severino, starting for the Mets, has struggled this year, reflected in his below-average performance and a 3.91 ERA. The projections suggest that Severino may have difficulties against the Padres' offense, which ranks 1st in MLB in team batting average and 8th overall.

Despite the Padres being favored with a moneyline of -150, the leading MLB projection system indicates a slightly higher probability of winning for them than what the betting odds suggest. This could present a valuable opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on the disparity between the projections and the odds. With the Padres' potent offense facing a struggling Severino, this matchup looks promising for San Diego.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Compared to the average hurler, Luis Severino has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 4.3 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Despite posting a .372 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mark Vientos has had positive variance on his side given the .054 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .318.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the New York Mets offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease has relied on his slider 7.9% more often this year (46.5%) than he did last year (38.6%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jurickson Profar has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 63 games (+12.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 70 games (+7.40 Units / 8% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+11.95 Units / 12% ROI)

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 3.93 vs San Diego Padres 4.55

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