New York Mets at New York Yankees Pick & Prediction – 7/23/2024

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees and New York Mets prepare to face off on July 23, 2024, at Yankee Stadium, fans are in for an exciting interleague matchup. With the Yankees holding a strong 60-42 record and the Mets at 51-48, both teams are having solid seasons, though the Yankees are clearly the favorites.

The Yankees will send Luis Gil to the mound. Gil, a right-hander, has been impressive this season with a 10-5 record and a stellar 3.17 ERA. Despite his high 4.06 xFIP suggesting some luck, he's still ranked as the #39 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gil’s high-flyball tendency (40% FB%) might be a concern against the Mets' powerful lineup, which ranks 5th in home runs with 126.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with left-hander Jose Quintana. Quintana has struggled, posting a 4-6 record and a 4.13 ERA. His 5.01 FIP indicates he’s been fortunate this season. The projections aren't kind to Quintana either, with a bad innings pitched projection of 4.9 and a terrible 3.0 earned runs allowed on average. Facing the Yankees' potent offense, which is 4th best in MLB and 2nd in home runs, could be a tough challenge for him.

Offensively, the Yankees have been led by the red-hot Juan Soto, who has posted a .611 batting average and a 1.909 OPS over the last week. Soto's scorching form will be critical against a Mets bullpen ranked 20th by advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, Jeff McNeil has been the standout for the Mets, hitting .333 with a 1.391 OPS and 3 home runs in his last four games.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Yankees as big favorites with a 62% win probability. This aligns with the betting odds, which have the Yankees as a -155 favorite, implying a 59% chance of victory. The Mets, with a +135 moneyline, have an implied win probability of 41%.

Overall, the Yankees’ high-powered offense and strong starting pitching give them a significant edge in this matchup. With a projected team total of 5.30 runs, the Yankees are well-positioned to start this series on a high note.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Over his previous 3 outings, Jose Quintana has seen a notable jump in his fastball velocity: from 90 mph over the whole season to 91 mph lately.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jose Iglesias's true offensive ability to be a .289, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .139 gap between that mark and his actual .428 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

New York Mets batters as a unit place 4th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 9.7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil has averaged 93.5 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 84th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

J.D. Davis has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 71 games (+14.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 12 away games (+9.00 Units / 75% ROI)

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.51 vs New York Yankees 5.17

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