New York Mets at New York Yankees Pick For 7/24/2024

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the New York Mets on July 24, 2024, at Yankee Stadium, fans are in for an exciting interleague clash. The Yankees, boasting a strong 60-43 record, are having a great season and currently sit in a favorable playoff position. On the other hand, the Mets, with a 52-48 record, are enjoying an above-average season, but face a tougher road to the postseason.

The Yankees' Gerrit Cole, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, will take the mound. Cole's 3-1 win/loss record and 4.60 ERA this year might seem average, but his 3.74 SIERA suggests he's been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Cole’s high-flyball tendencies (43 FB%) could be a concern against the Mets' powerful offense, which ranks 5th in MLB with 126 home runs this season.

Opposing Cole will be the Mets' lefty, Sean Manaea. With a 6-4 record and a solid 3.73 ERA, Manaea has been effective this season. However, his 4.30 xFIP indicates he might have been somewhat fortunate and could regress. The Yankees' offense, ranked 2nd in MLB overall and 2nd in home runs, could capitalize on Manaea’s control issues, given their league-leading ability to draw walks.

The Yankees' bullpen is ranked 19th, while the Mets' bullpen is 20th, indicating both teams have room for improvement in relief pitching. Offensively, the Yankees have the edge, especially with Juan Soto's recent hot streak. Over the last week, Soto has been on fire, hitting .500 with a 1.587 OPS, 11 hits, and 2 home runs in 5 games. Meanwhile, Jeff McNeil has been the standout for the Mets, boasting a .400 batting average and a 1.612 OPS over the same period.

The Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -165, translating to an implied win probability of 60%. Given Cole’s potential for improved performance and the Yankees' potent offense, they appear well-positioned to secure a win in this pivotal matchup.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea has utilized his sinker 34.2% more often this season (34.9%) than he did last year (0.7%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Over the past 7 days, Francisco Lindor's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Mets hitters jointly rank near the top of the majors this year (8th-) when it comes to their 89.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Out of all starting pitchers, Gerrit Cole's fastball velocity of 95.3 mph ranks in the 91st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Aaron Judge's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 101.9-mph EV last year has dropped off to 99.9-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

J.D. Davis has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+11.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.22 vs New York Yankees 5.1

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