New York Mets at Miami Marlins Best Bet – 7/21/2024

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Christian Scott - Mets
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On July 21, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the New York Mets at LoanDepot Park in the third game of their series. This National League East matchup features two teams heading in different directions this season. The Marlins are struggling with a 34-64 record, while the Mets are showing strength with a 50-47 record, keeping them in the hunt for the playoffs.

The Marlins will send left-hander Trevor Rogers to the mound. Rogers has had a tough season, holding a 1-9 Win/Loss record and an ERA of 4.72. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Rogers ranks as the 202nd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating significant struggles. THE BAT X projects Rogers to allow 2.9 earned runs and 5.4 hits over an average of 5.0 innings, which doesn't bode well against a potent Mets offense. The Marlins offense, ranked 29th overall and last in home runs, will need to find some spark to support their struggling pitcher.

Christian Scott will take the ball for the Mets, entering with a 0-2 Win/Loss record and a 4.36 ERA. THE BAT X ranks Scott as the 68th best starting pitcher, showing he's been more effective than his counterpart. Scott projects to allow 2.5 earned runs over 5.3 innings, which is above average. The Mets' offense, ranked 7th overall and 5th in home runs, should have a favorable matchup against Rogers. Notably, Scott is a high-flyball pitcher, which could minimize the damage from a Marlins lineup that is last in home run power.

The Marlins' bullpen, ranked 11th, might hold an edge over the Mets' 20th-ranked bullpen if the game remains close. However, the Mets' offensive firepower, combined with the Marlins' struggles, makes New York a clear favorite. With a moneyline of -150, the Mets have an implied win probability of 58%, reflecting their stronger overall performance and favorable matchups for this game. The Marlins, with a moneyline of +130, have an implied win probability of 42%.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Christian Scott has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -7.4 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.5) provides evidence that Francisco Lindor has had bad variance on his side this year with his 23.4 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The New York Mets projected batting order ranks as the 5th-best on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The New York Mets have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Trevor Rogers in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Josh Bell has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 7.1% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the last week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Miami Marlins hitters jointly grade out 24th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 7.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 52 of their last 88 games (+12.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 69 games (+14.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+9.65 Units / 12% ROI)

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.22 vs Miami Marlins 4.35

Get daily MLB picks here.