New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick For 4/19/2024

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
• Run Line: Mets 1.5 -125, Dodgers -1.5 105
• Money Line: Mets 170, Dodgers -195
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Mets - 36%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 64%

Projected Win %:

• New York Mets - 31.9%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 68.1%

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup set to take place on April 19, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, with a season record of 12-9, are having a good season so far, while the Mets boast a record of 10-8, also performing well.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a right-handed pitcher and the Dodgers' projected starter, has been ranked as the #7 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. With an ERA of 4.50 this year, Yamamoto's performance has been average, but his 2.88 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Sean Manaea, a left-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Mets. Although he has an average performance according to our Power Rankings, his 3.52 FIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

The Dodgers, who rank as the #4 best offense in MLB this season, are known for their power-hitting ability, ranking #2 in team home runs. On the other hand, the Mets' offense ranks #11 overall, with Pete Alonso as their standout hitter over the last 7 games. In recent games, Alonso has recorded 7 hits, 7 runs, and 4 RBIs, with a batting average of .368 and an impressive 1.395 OPS.

In terms of team rankings, the Dodgers' bullpen is considered the #4 best in MLB, while the Mets' bullpen ranks as the #26 best. This suggests that the Dodgers have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

The current odds heavily favor the Dodgers, with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%. The Mets, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +170 and an implied win probability of 36%. Based on the odds, the Dodgers have a higher implied team total of 4.92 runs compared to the Mets' 3.58 runs.

In analyzing the pitching matchup, Yamamoto's high-strikeout ability may be limited against the Mets' low-strikeout offense. However, Manaea's tendency to give up flyballs could pose a challenge for the Mets, as the powerful Dodgers' offense has hit the second-most home runs in MLB. Additionally, Manaea's struggles with control may result in the patient Dodgers drawing walks and capitalizing on scoring opportunities.

With these factors in mind, the Dodgers enter the game as strong favorites. However, the Mets have shown resilience and have the potential to make it a competitive matchup. It will be an exciting game to watch and analyze.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Starling Marte has had some very poor luck this year. His .320 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .451.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The New York Mets have been the 6th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Yoshinobu Yamamoto must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 58.5% of the time, checking in at the 75th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Max Muncy has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 147 games (+21.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+14.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Mets vs Dodgers Prediction: Mets 3.81 - Dodgers 5.34

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