Mets vs Dodgers Game 6 NLCS Best Bet – 10/20/2024

• Date: October 20, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Undecided - Dodgers

Mets vs Dodgers Game 6 Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 6 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 6 Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium on October 20, 2024, the stakes are high in this pivotal National League matchup. The Dodgers, boasting the 1st-ranked offense in MLB, find themselves in a tight series against the Mets, having dropped their last contest by a score of 12-6. This game marks the sixth in their series, with both teams eyeing a crucial victory, as the Dodgers lead this series 3-2 going into tonight.

The Dodgers have yet to decide on a starter for this game, which should be a bullpen game for them. The Dodgers' powerful offense, led by Shohei Ohtani and buoyed by Max Muncy's recent hot streak, will look to capitalize on any mistakes by the Mets' starter, Sean Manaea. Manaea, a lefty with a solid 3.47 ERA, has been a reliable starter for New York, but his high-flyball tendencies might not bode well against the Dodgers' top home run-hitting lineup.

Manaea's projections aren't favorable, with expectations of 4.3 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed, while Brasier is anticipated to pitch just 1.0 inning. The Dodgers' offense, which ranks 1st in home runs and 4th in batting average, could exploit Manaea's flyball issues, especially in a hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium.

The Mets, ranked 9th in offense, will rely on Francisco Lindor and the recent form of Jesse Winker to challenge the Dodgers' 5th-ranked bullpen. With both teams featuring strong bullpens and potent offenses, this contest could hinge on which starter can better navigate the early innings. Despite the Mets' recent victory, the Dodgers remain the favorites with a moneyline of -150, giving them a 58% implied win probability.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of all the teams playing today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Max Muncy is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of New York (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The weakest projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 89 games (+27.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 119 games (+23.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 40% ROI)

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 6 Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.44 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.49

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