New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels Pick For 8/3/2024

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Jose Soriano - Angels

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels will host the New York Mets on August 3, 2024, in what shapes up to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Currently, the Angels sit at 47-62, struggling through a disappointing season, while the Mets are performing well above average with a record of 57-51. The Angels are ranked 24th in MLB for their offense, which has been lackluster, especially in power categories, ranking 20th in home runs. Conversely, the Mets boast the 8th best offense, excelling with a powerful lineup that has hit 132 home runs, ranking 4th in the league.

Jose Soriano is projected to start for the Angels, and while he has a solid ERA of 3.69, his xERA of 4.32 suggests he may not be as effective going forward. Soriano has been a high-groundball pitcher this season, which could play to his advantage against a Mets offense that thrives on hitting home runs. He has also struggled with allowing an average of 5.3 hits and 1.8 walks per game, which could be problematic against a potent lineup.

On the mound for the Mets is David Peterson, who has a good ERA of 3.52 but has shown signs of vulnerability with a higher xFIP of 4.55. Peterson's performance has dipped recently, and he projects to pitch only 5.0 innings today, which is below average.

The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive offensive showdown. With the Angels having the advantage of home-field and the Mets potentially underperforming from their recent stretch, this match could be closer than the odds suggest, making the Angels an intriguing bet at +110 on the moneyline.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's 2131-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 20th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the last two weeks' worth of games, Brandon Nimmo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 3rd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano is an extreme groundball pitcher (52.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #10 HR venue among all parks — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Brandon Drury has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 81.5-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 58 of their last 103 games (+10.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 46 games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+8.65 Units / 23% ROI)

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.79 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.85

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