New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels Best Bet – 8/2/2024

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Blackburn - Mets
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On August 2, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will host the New York Mets at Angel Stadium for the first game of their interleague series. The Angels, struggling this season with a 47-61 record, find themselves in the bottom tier of the standings and will look to turn things around against a Mets team that is having an above-average season at 57-51. The Mets have been particularly strong, ranking 8th in the league in offensive performance, while the Angels sit at 24th, indicating a significant disparity in offensive firepower.

Tyler Anderson is projected to take the mound for the Angels, coming off a solid season with an impressive ERA of 2.96, despite some concerning underlying metrics that suggest he may have been a bit lucky this year. His xFIP of 4.75 indicates he might be due for a rough outing against a powerful Mets lineup that has already racked up 132 home runs this season, ranking 4th in MLB. Anderson's tendency to allow fly balls could be a recipe for disaster against such a potent offense.

On the other side, Paul Blackburn will start for the Mets. While Blackburn’s 4.41 ERA is average, he has been inconsistent this season and is considered one of the less effective pitchers in the league. The projections suggest that both pitchers are likely to allow a fair number of earned runs today, making the high Game Total of 9.0 runs seem reasonable.

Nolan Schanuel has been the standout for the Angels recently, hitting .438 with 2 home runs over the last week, while the Mets' Mark Vientos has also been productive, contributing significantly to the team's offensive efforts. The Angels come into this game as underdogs with a +120 moneyline, but with their best hitter in form and a favorable matchup against Blackburn, they could surprise.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Recording 98.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Paul Blackburn falls in the 98th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jose Iglesias tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tyler Anderson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the New York Mets offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Tyler Anderson should be in good shape going up against 8 hitters in the projected offense who bat from the other side in today's outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brandon Drury has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+10.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+12.70 Units / 34% ROI)

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.5 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.98

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