New York Mets at Colorado Rockies Pick & Prediction – 8/7/2024

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Blackburn - Mets
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies host the New York Mets on August 7, 2024, both teams are looking to capitalize on their previous performances. The Rockies are in the midst of a challenging season with a record of 42-72, while the Mets are enjoying a stronger campaign at 59-54. Last night, the Rockies took the first game of this series, showcasing their offensive potential against the Mets.

In terms of pitching matchups, the Rockies will send right-hander Ryan Feltner to the mound, who has struggled this season with a 1-10 record and a below-average ERA of 4.97. While his xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, Feltner is projected to pitch only 4.8 innings today, allowing an alarming 3.3 earned runs on average. Facing him is Paul Blackburn, another right-handed pitcher, who has had a more promising season with a 5-2 record and an ERA of 4.11. Blackburn's ability to go deeper into games—projected at 5.2 innings—may provide the Mets with a strategic advantage.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 17th overall, with notable strengths in home runs (10th) but weaknesses in stolen bases (23rd). In contrast, the Mets boast a solid 8th overall ranking with their exceptional power, sitting 4th in home runs. Brendan Rodgers has been the Rockies' best hitter over the past week, while Jeff McNeil has stood out for the Mets.

The Game Total is set high at 11.5 runs, indicating an expectation of a high-scoring affair. With the Rockies as underdogs at +135 and an implied team total of 5.17 runs, they will need to leverage their home-field advantage at Coors Field to upset the favored Mets, currently at -160 with an implied team total of 6.33 runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

In the last 14 days, Brandon Nimmo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be best to expect worse results for the New York Mets offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ryan Feltner is projected to throw 83 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Charlie Blackmon's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 86.4-mph average last year has dropped off to 84.4-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 40 games at home (+6.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.75 Units / 44% ROI)

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 6.61 vs Colorado Rockies 5.87

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