New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians Pick For 5/20/2024

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 20, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tylor Megill - Mets
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are set to host the New York Mets in an interleague matchup at Progressive Field on May 20, 2024. The Guardians, with a record of 30-17, are having a great season, while the Mets, with a record of 21-25, are struggling below average.

The Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ben Lively, who has a 2-2 win/loss record and an impressive 3.06 ERA this season. However, his 4.45 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could potentially perform worse going forward. On the other hand, the Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tylor Megill, who has a 0-1 record and a stellar 2.25 ERA. However, his 5.88 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future performances.

In terms of offense, the Guardians rank 13th in MLB, while the Mets rank 20th. The Guardians have a solid team batting average, ranking 14th in the league, but they struggle with home runs, ranking last. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 7th. The Mets, on the other hand, have a lower team batting average, ranking 24th, but they perform better in home runs, ranking 11th, and have an average ranking in stolen bases at 15th.

The Guardians' bullpen is considered the third-best in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mets' bullpen ranks 20th. This could give the Guardians an advantage in the later innings of the game.

It's worth noting that the Guardians have the best hitter over the last seven games in David Fry, who has recorded impressive stats including a 0.444 batting average and a 1.393 OPS. The Mets' standout hitter over the last week has been J.D. Martinez, who has a 0.417 batting average and a 1.128 OPS.

Considering the projections and the overall performance of both teams, the Guardians have a higher win probability, with a moneyline set at -130, indicating a 54% chance of winning. The Mets, with a moneyline of +110, have a 46% implied win probability. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, which is an average projection.

With the Guardians having a strong record and home advantage, combined with their superior bullpen and the performance of their best hitter, they appear to be the favorites in this matchup. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Mets will be looking to defy the odds and secure a victory on the road.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

With 7 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Tylor Megill will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brett Baty is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the strongest among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Tyler Freeman is penciled in 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Cleveland Guardians (18.4 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy set of batters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+7.30 Units / 35% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.84 vs Cleveland Guardians 5.24

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