New York Mets at Chicago White Sox Pick For 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox will host the New York Mets on September 1, 2024, in what promises to be a compelling matchup at Guaranteed Rate Field. Both teams have been struggling lately, but the Mets are sitting in a more favorable position with a record of 72-64, while the White Sox are languishing with a disappointing 31-106. The Mets are looking to maintain their momentum after a recent victory, while the White Sox are trying to shake off a season filled with tough losses.

Garrett Crochet is projected to take the mound for the White Sox. Despite his 6-9 record, he has shown flashes of brilliance this season, ranking as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. His ERA of 3.64 suggests he has been unlucky, especially with a significantly lower xFIP of 2.54, indicating better performances could be on the horizon. However, he struggles with allowing hits, projecting to give up an average of 3.2 hits today, which could be problematic against a potent Mets lineup.

Sean Manaea will counter for the Mets, boasting a respectable 10-5 record and a solid ERA of 3.51. However, his projections indicate he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP is 4.07. The White Sox offense, ranked 30th overall, could find it difficult to capitalize on Manaea’s high fly-ball rate, especially given their lack of power this season.

With a low implied team total of 3.51 runs for the White Sox, bettors may lean towards the Mets, who have a higher projected total of 4.49 runs. This matchup sets the stage for an intriguing battle, particularly with the Mets' strong offensive performance against a struggling Chicago squad.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea has gone to his sinker 35.6% more often this season (36.3%) than he did last year (0.7%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Mark Vientos has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 94.2-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the New York Mets offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Garrett Crochet’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2572 rpm) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (2496 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Lenyn Sosa has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .216 mark is quite a bit lower than his .287 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 78 games (+10.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 22 games (+24.90 Units / 113% ROI)

New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.45 vs Chicago White Sox 4.21

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