New York Mets at Chicago Cubs Prediction For 6/21/2024

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On June 21, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will face the New York Mets at Wrigley Field in a National League matchup. Both teams have had below-average seasons so far, with the Cubs holding a 36-39 record and the Mets at 35-38. Despite their struggles, the Cubs come into this game as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, implying a 57% chance of victory.

Chicago will send Shota Imanaga to the mound, who, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, is the 69th-best starting pitcher in MLB. Imanaga has been impressive this season with a 7-1 record and an excellent 1.89 ERA, though his 3.48 xFIP suggests some regression might be on the horizon. In his last start on June 15, Imanaga went seven strong innings, allowing just one earned run while striking out six. The Cubs' bats have shown some life recently, particularly Ian Happ, who has been scorching hot over the last week with a .500 batting average and a 1.633 OPS.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with Jose Quintana, who has struggled this season. Quintana holds a 2-5 record with a 4.98 ERA, making him one of the worst pitchers per the advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, he did pitch well in his last outing on June 15, going six innings and allowing just one earned run. The Mets' offense, which ranks 11th in MLB, will need to step up, with Francisco Lindor and J.D. Martinez leading the charge. Over the past week, Martinez has been particularly effective, hitting .368 with a 1.328 OPS.

While the Cubs' bullpen is ranked 23rd, the Mets' bullpen sits at 17th, providing a slight edge for New York in the later innings. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects this as a close game, giving the Cubs a 53% chance to win but notes that the Mets have a 4% higher win probability than the betting market suggests. This indicates potential value in betting on the Mets as underdogs at +120.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, expect an average scoring affair where every run and defensive play could make a significant difference. Keep an eye on Imanaga's performance and the Cubs' offense to see if they can capitalize on Quintana's struggles.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Jose Quintana is projected to average 1.8 walks in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Harrison Bader's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 87-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 80-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 9.1% Barrel% of the New York Mets ranks them as the #6 squad in the game this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The New York Mets have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Shota Imanaga in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.2) provides evidence that Patrick Wisdom has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his 40.0 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Patrick Wisdom pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 53 games (+15.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+10.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.48 vs Chicago Cubs 4.51

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.