New York Mets at Chicago Cubs Best Bet – 6/22/2024

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tylor Megill - Mets
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On June 22, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will host the New York Mets at Wrigley Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. This is the second game in the series between these two teams, and both clubs have had their ups and downs this season. While the Cubs are having a below-average season with a 36-40 record, the Mets are faring slightly better with a 36-38 record, putting them in the mix for potential playoff contention.

The pitching matchup features Jameson Taillon for the Cubs, who boasts a 3.08 ERA despite a less impressive 4.49 xFIP, suggesting he might have been fortunate this year. Taillon's Win/Loss record stands at 3-3 over 11 starts. On the other side, the Mets will counter with Tylor Megill, who has a solid 3.52 ERA but an even better 2.62 FIP, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky. Megill's record is 2-3 over 6 starts.

Offensively, the Cubs have been inconsistent. They rank 18th in MLB for overall offense, 25th in team batting average, and 20th in home runs, while their stolen base prowess shines at 8th. Ian Happ has been a bright spot, hitting .500 with a 1.615 OPS over the last week, contributing 10 hits, 3 home runs, and 2 stolen bases in 6 games.

Meanwhile, the Mets' offense ranks 12th overall, 11th in team batting average, and 8th in home runs. J.D. Martinez has been on fire recently, with a .400 batting average and 1.438 OPS over the last week, tallying 8 hits, 3 home runs, and 8 RBIs in 6 games.

The Cubs' bullpen, ranked 21st, could be a weak point compared to the Mets' 16th-ranked bullpen. Given the struggles of both starting pitchers and the high projected game total of 12.0 runs, this game could turn into a high-scoring affair.

Betting markets have this as a close game, with the Cubs' moneyline at -115 and the Mets at -105. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives a slight edge to the Mets with a 51% win probability. This aligns with the Mets' higher implied team total and their superior hitting metrics. Look for the Mets to leverage their balanced offensive attack and take advantage of Taillon's potential regression to secure a win.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Francisco Lindor has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 21.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly deflated relative to his 30.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

New York Mets bats collectively rank 6th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 9% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon is projected to allow an average of 3.69 earned runs in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Ian Happ is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 31 games (+14.65 Units / 41% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 31 away games (+11.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+8.80 Units / 102% ROI)

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 6.6 vs Chicago Cubs 6.11

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