New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Pick For 4/10/2024

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 10, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Allan Winans - Braves
• Run Line: Mets 1.5 -140, Braves -1.5 115
• Money Line: Mets 140, Braves -160
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Mets - 40%
• Atlanta Braves - 60%

Projected Win %:

• New York Mets - 35.8%
• Atlanta Braves - 64.2%

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League East matchup, the Atlanta Braves will host the New York Mets at Truist Park on April 10, 2024. The Braves, with a record of 7-3 this season, are having a great season so far, while the Mets are struggling with a 4-7 record, making it a terrible season for them.

The Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Allan Winans, who is considered the #164 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, the Mets are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, who is regarded as one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

While Quintana has an impressive ERA of 2.61 this year, his xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Winans, on the other hand, is projected to have an average performance, pitching around 5.1 innings and allowing 2.5 earned runs on average.

The Braves boast the best offense in MLB this season, leading in team batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Mets offense ranks low among MLB teams. With the Braves' strong offense and the Mets' struggling pitching, the matchup heavily favors the Braves in terms of offensive production.

Defensively, the Braves have the 5th best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mets rank 24th. This further strengthens the Braves' advantage in the game.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are considered the betting favorite with a higher win probability of 59% compared to the Mets' 41%. Additionally, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Braves to have a win probability of 64% in this game, suggesting a strong advantage for them.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Jose Quintana in the 14th percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects D.J. Stewart in the 7th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Brett Baty has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Adam Duvall has strong power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (29.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jose Quintana doesn't generate many whiffs (14th percentile K%) — great news for Duvall.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Atlanta Braves projected offense ranks as the 3rd-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 4.53 vs Atlanta Braves 5.82

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