Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick – 5/20/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 20, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On May 20, 2024, the Washington Nationals will face off against the Minnesota Twins at Nationals Park. The Nationals, currently having a bad season with a record of 20-25, will be looking to turn things around against the Twins, who are having an above-average season with a record of 24-22.

The Nationals will be the home team for this interleague matchup, and they are projected to start left-handed pitcher Mitchell Parker. Despite being ranked as one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Parker has shown promise with an ERA of 3.09 this season. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward.

On the other hand, the Twins will send right-handed pitcher Pablo Lopez to the mound. Lopez, ranked as an elite starting pitcher in MLB, has a solid ERA of 3.93 this season. His advanced stats indicate that he has been unlucky and may perform better in future games.

This game marks the first in a series between these two teams.

When it comes to offense, the Nationals have struggled this season, ranking as the 26th best in MLB. However, they have shown strength in team batting average, ranking 6th in the league. In contrast, the Twins have an average-ranked offense, sitting at the 16th spot in MLB. They excel in team home runs, ranking 7th in the league.

Over the past week, Ildemaro Vargas has been the Nationals' standout hitter, recording 5 hits and stealing 1 base with a batting average of .294 and an OPS of .807. For the Twins, Manuel Margot has been their best hitter over the last 7 games, maintaining a batting average of .364 and an OPS of .780.

In terms of pitching matchups, Mitchell Parker's low strikeout rate may work in his favor against the high-strikeout Twins offense. On the other hand, Pablo Lopez's high strikeout rate may face challenges against the Nationals' low-strikeout offense.

Based on the current odds, the Twins are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 60%, while the Nationals are the underdogs with a 40% win probability. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs.

As the Nationals look to overcome their struggles and the Twins aim to continue their strong season, this game promises an intriguing battle between two teams with different strengths and weaknesses.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez has put up a 13.4% Swinging Strike percentage this year, checking in at the 89th percentile.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

This year, there has been a decline in Willi Castro's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.59 ft/sec last year to 27.77 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Carlos Correa ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 10.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Despite posting a .185 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Keibert Ruiz has suffered from bad luck given the .114 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .299.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Washington Nationals projected lineup ranks as the 2nd-weakest on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+8.03 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 62% ROI)
• Nick Senzel has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+9.00 Units / 112% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.63 vs Washington Nationals 3.6

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.