Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on August 16, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Rangers currently sit at 56-66, reflecting a disappointing season, while the Twins, with a record of 68-53, are enjoying a solid campaign. This matchup marks the second game in their series, following a competitive first outing where the Twins won a tight 3-2 affair.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Andrew Heaney, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled this season with a 4-12 record and a Power Rankings position of #153 among MLB starters. Despite an ERA of 4.05, which is above average, Heaney's projections suggest he may allow 2.4 earned runs while giving up an alarming 4.8 hits and 1.4 walks per game. The Rangers' offense, ranked 23rd in MLB, has not provided the necessary support, producing only an average of 4.30 runs as implied by current betting lines.

In contrast, the Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richardson, who has a more favorable 3-3 win-loss record and an ERA of 3.78. Although he is also considered a below-average pitcher, his projections indicate he will keep the earned runs to a minimum while striking out around 4.5 batters. The Twins offense ranks 6th in MLB, boasting a strong batting average and home run production, which could exploit Heaney’s weaknesses.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, bettors should note the close odds, as the Rangers are favored slightly at -115 while the Twins sit at -105. Given the disparity in offensive capabilities and the Rangers' struggles, this matchup leans in favor of Minnesota, making them a team to watch as they aim to continue their winning ways.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (59.8% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Trevor Larnach is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Minnesota Twins hitters jointly rank among the worst in the league this year (24th- overall) in regard to their 90.7-mph average exit velocity on the top 5% of their highest exit velocity balls.

• Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter's best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Andrew Heaney's fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this year (90.9 mph) below where it was last season (91.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Josh Jung has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 78.5-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 53 games (+11.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 32 games (+7.20 Units / 18% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.04 vs Texas Rangers 4.66

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