Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 5/28/2025

The Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins clash again on May 28, 2025, in the third game of their series at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The Twins claimed victory in yesterday’s matchup, winning 4-2, which adds some pressure on the Rays as they look to even the series. The Rays, currently at .500 with a 27-27 record, find themselves in an average position, while the Twins boast a solid 30-24 record, marking them as the better team this season.

Drew Rasmussen, projected to start for the Rays, has had a decent year with a 3-4 record and an excellent ERA of 2.60. However, his 3.53 xFIP indicates he may not sustain this level of performance, suggesting some regression could be looming. In contrast, Pablo Lopez has been effective for the Twins, holding a 4-2 record with an outstanding ERA of 2.31. His advanced metrics also suggest that while he’s been performing well, he too might face a downturn.

Both pitchers are right-handed, but Rasmussen faces a unique challenge against a Twins offense that has struggled, ranking as the 22nd best in MLB. On the other hand, the Rays rank 19th in team offense, making this matchup particularly intriguing as both teams seek to capitalize on their opponent's weaknesses.

The projections suggest a low-scoring affair, with a Game Total set at 7.5 runs, indicating a tight battle ahead. While the Rays' bullpen ranks 17th, the Twins' bullpen is among the league's best at 6th. Given these factors, the Twins may have the upper hand in this matchup, but with both teams keen to prove themselves, fans can expect an exciting game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Because groundball batters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Pablo Lopez (45.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 3 GB hitters in the opposing club's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Willi Castro's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 90.6-mph figure last year has dropped to 86.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the 6th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 57.2% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Extreme flyball bats like Danny Jansen are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Pablo Lopez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+10.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+15.80 Units / 31% ROI)
• Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.85 Units / 50% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.07, Tampa Bay Rays 4.07

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

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