Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 3/30/2025

Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on March 30, 2025, they are riding high with a perfect 2-0 record this season, while the Twins are struggling at 0-2. The Cardinals are projected to start Andre Pallante, who has been rated as the 93rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating an average performance level. In contrast, the Twins will send out Bailey Ober, ranked 39th, showcasing his solid standing among pitchers.

Pallante has shown some inconsistency in his projections, particularly allowing an average of 5.0 hits and 1.7 walks, both of which are considered terrible. However, he projects to pitch an average of 5.1 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs, which is a positive sign for St. Louis. Ober, while slightly better in earned runs allowed at 2.4, has his own challenges, projecting to allow 4.7 hits and 1.2 walks, indicating potential trouble against a Cardinals lineup that is finding its rhythm early in the season.

The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a close matchup, and the betting lines reflect this sentiment, with the Cardinals at +105 and the Twins at -125. The Cardinals have an average implied team total of 3.86 runs, while the Twins sit at 4.14 runs. Given the current trends, St. Louis is looking to capitalize on Minnesota's early-season woes, making this a pivotal game for both teams as they navigate their respective seasons.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bailey Ober must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary offerings a lot since the start of last season: 61.8% of the time, grading out in the 87th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Byron Buxton has big-time power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante has a pitch-to-contact profile (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Buxton.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Minnesota's 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #24 club in the majors since the start of last season by this metric.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Over his previous 3 starts, Andre Pallante has suffered a big decline in his fastball velocity: from 93.9 mph over the entire season to 92.8 mph of late.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

In today's matchup, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.3% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 51 games (+6.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 89 games (+14.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)

• Date: March 30, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.