Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 3/29/2025

Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the calendar turns to March 29, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Minnesota Twins at Busch Stadium for the second game of their series. The Cardinals aim to build on their early success, holding a record of 1-0 this season, while the Twins look to rebound from a rough start at 0-1. St. Louis is coming off a strong performance, and they will be counting on right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde, who has been projected to allow a solid 2.2 earned runs but also has concerning numbers with 4.6 hits and 1.3 walks allowed on average.

On the other side, Minnesota will send out Joe Ryan, currently ranked as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB, giving him the edge in this matchup. Ryan’s projections are equally balanced, expecting him to allow 2.2 earned runs while striking out 5.2 batters per game. Both pitchers are right-handed and appear to set the stage for a tightly contested game, as evidenced by the low Game Total of 7.5 runs.

From a betting perspective, the Cardinals’ moneyline sits at +100, indicating a competitive matchup, especially considering their favorable start to the season. In contrast, the Twins are facing scrutiny with a moneyline of -120, suggesting they need to showcase improvement quickly. The projections suggest that the Cardinals, despite their lower implied team total of 3.66 runs, may have the upper hand due to their solid start and home-field advantage. A win today could solidify their promising season ahead.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde has averaged 93.5 adjusted pitches per GS since the start of last season, grading out in the 86th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Batting from the same side that Joe Ryan throws from, Nolan Arenado will have a tough challenge in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Today, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.3% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 51 games (+6.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 86 games (+13.20 Units / 14% ROI)

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals

Betting Odds

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