Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/29/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins continue their series at T-Mobile Park on June 29, 2024, following a close 3-2 Mariners victory yesterday. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Mariners holding a 47-37 record and the Twins at 45-37. This matchup features two right-handed pitchers, Bryce Miller for the Mariners and Pablo Lopez for the Twins.

Miller, who has a 3.90 ERA and a 6-6 record over 16 starts, will look to rebound after a rough outing where he allowed six earned runs in just four innings. Despite this, he projects to allow only 2.3 earned runs over 5.6 innings today. However, his tendency to give up flyballs (40% FB rate) could be problematic against a powerful Twins offense that ranks 5th in MLB with 97 home runs.

On the other hand, Lopez enters the game with a 5.11 ERA but has been unlucky, as indicated by his 3.28 xFIP. He’s coming off a complete game shutout with 14 strikeouts, showcasing his potential. Lopez projects to allow 2.4 earned runs over 5.8 innings and could neutralize the Mariners' offense, which ranks 25th in MLB overall and struggles with a .229 team batting average.

Offensively, the Mariners' best hitter, Julio Rodriguez, has been consistent all season, while Cal Raleigh has been hot over the last week with a 1.005 OPS. The Twins counter with Willi Castro, who boasts a .277 batting average and .821 OPS this season, and Byron Buxton, who has been on fire recently with a 1.605 OPS over the last week.

Betting markets have the Twins slightly favored at -120 with an implied win probability of 52%, while the Mariners are at +100 with a 48% implied win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mariners a slight edge with a 51% win probability. This suggests that there might be value in backing Seattle in what is projected to be a low-scoring affair with a game total set at 7.5 runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez has recorded a 25.1% strikeout rate this year, grading out in the 77th percentile.

• One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Bryce Miller will surrender an average of 2.28 earned runs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky this year, compiling a .283 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .352 — a .069 difference.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+12.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.92 vs Seattle Mariners 3.66

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