Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction & Picks 6/30/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins square off on June 30, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, wrapping up a three-game series. The Mariners, boasting a solid 47-37 record, are having a good season, while the Twins, at 45-37, are slightly behind but still enjoying an above-average year. With both teams in contention, this American League matchup holds significant importance.

The Mariners will send right-hander Luis Castillo to the mound. Castillo is projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to pitch about 6.1 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.4 batters on average. Despite his strong projected ERA, Castillo struggles with hits and walks, allowing 4.9 hits and 1.6 walks per game on average.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with right-hander Joe Ryan. Ryan is ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB, a testament to his effectiveness. Projections have him pitching 5.7 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, and striking out 7.2 batters on average. However, like Castillo, Ryan is also expected to give up too many hits and walks, with projections of 4.3 hits and 1.3 walks allowed per game.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 29th in MLB in team batting average but show power with the 11th most home runs. Cal Raleigh has been their standout hitter over the last week, with a remarkable 1.166 OPS, 5 RBIs, and 2 home runs in just 5 games. Meanwhile, the Twins' offense is more balanced, ranking 11th in batting average and 5th in home runs. Byron Buxton has been on fire, hitting .571 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs in his last 4 games.

With both teams having a low implied run total of 3.50 runs and the game total set at 7.0 runs, expect a tight contest. Betting markets indicate a close game, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. Given the Mariners' strong home run capability and Castillo's ability to limit runs, Seattle might have a slight edge in this crucial matchup.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's four-seamer utilization has decreased by 8.4% from last year to this one (56.9% to 48.5%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.5) may lead us to conclude that Royce Lewis has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his 45.2 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo's 2182-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a notable 105-rpm fall off from last year's 2287-rpm rate.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+11.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games at home (+15.60 Units / 120% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.7 vs Seattle Mariners 3.66

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