Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 5/30/2025

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on May 30, 2025, both teams find themselves locked in a competitive battle with identical records of 30-25. The Mariners, currently sitting atop the AL West, are aiming to solidify their position with a win tonight. Meanwhile, the Twins are looking to gain ground in the AL Central, as they look up at the Detroit Tigers in the standings.

Bryan Woo is set to take the mound for Seattle today. Woo has been impressive this season, boasting a 5-2 record and an excellent ERA of 2.40 over 10 starts. His advanced statistics rank him as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his potential to dominate. Woo is projected to pitch an average of 6.2 innings while allowing just 2.0 earned runs, a reflection of his elite performance thus far.

On the other hand, Zebby Matthews will be taking the ball for the Twins. With a 0-1 record and a troubling ERA of 7.71, Matthews has struggled in his limited appearances this season. The projections suggest he may have been unlucky, but his high walk rate of 11.4% could be a concern against a Mariners lineup that excels at drawing walks.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 11th in MLB, with a notable ability to hit home runs, sitting 6th overall. In contrast, the Twins' offense has been lackluster, ranking 23rd in the league. This disparity in offensive production could be pivotal in today's matchup, especially given the low Game Total of 7.5 runs.

With the Mariners favored at a moneyline of -155, their strong pitching and better offensive metrics suggest they have the upper hand in this first game of the series against the Twins.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Brooks Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The 4th-weakest projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Minnesota Twins.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue in the majors in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so J.P. Crawford has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Seattle Mariners hitters collectively rank 4th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 10.7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Leody Taveras has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+9.90 Units / 141% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.38, Seattle Mariners 3.93

• Date: May 30, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zebby Matthews - Twins
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners

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