Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 6/1/2025

On June 1, 2025, the Seattle Mariners welcome the Minnesota Twins to T-Mobile Park for the third game of their series. The Mariners enter this matchup with a record of 31-26, tied with the Twins for an above-average season. Both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances, with the Mariners winning their last game against the Twins by a narrow 5-4 margin.

Luis Castillo is projected to take the mound for Seattle, coming off an uneventful outing where he allowed three earned runs over six innings on May 25. Despite this, Castillo boasts a solid 3.32 ERA and ranks as the 84th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is above average. The projections suggest he is likely to pitch approximately 6.1 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out around 6.4 batters.

On the opposite side, Minnesota will counter with Chris Paddack, who has a less favorable 3.92 ERA and a 2-5 record this season. Paddack's last start was notable for his strong performance, allowing just two earned runs over five innings. However, his 4.76 xFIP suggests that he may not sustain this level of performance going forward. He is projected to pitch 5.4 innings today, with 2.5 earned runs allowed, but his strikeout rate of 4.5 is below average.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 11th in MLB, demonstrating a well-rounded attack that includes the 6th most home runs this season. In contrast, the Twins are struggling, ranking 23rd in offensive efficiency and facing a powerful Mariners lineup that could exploit Paddack’s flyball tendencies. With the Mariners being favored at -140 on the moneyline, this matchup offers a compelling opportunity for sports bettors to consider Seattle's advantages.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue in the majors in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Ty France has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 67% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so J.P. Crawford has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher in today's game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+9.30 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+13.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Carlos Correa has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+15.40 Units / 220% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.58, Seattle Mariners 3.99

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

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