Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction & Picks 7/14/2024

Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Blake Snell - Giants

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants host the Minnesota Twins at Oracle Park on July 14, 2024, fans are gearing up for an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams are at different points in their seasons, with the Giants struggling at 46-50 and the Twins excelling at 54-41. This game marks the third in their series, adding another layer of familiarity and competition.

On the mound, the Giants will start left-hander Blake Snell, who ranks as the #36 best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Snell has been a bright spot for San Francisco, showcasing good overall performances with an average of 6.6 strikeouts and 2.2 earned runs allowed per game. However, he has struggled with control, projecting 2.1 walks and 4.5 hits allowed on average, both of which are areas that could be exploited by a strong Twins lineup.

The Twins counter with right-hander Chris Paddack, whose projections are less favorable. Paddack is considered a below-average pitcher, allowing 2.6 earned runs and 5.3 hits per game, coupled with a lower strikeout rate of 4.3. These metrics suggest that the Giants' offense, which ranks 13th in batting average, might find some success against him.

Offensively, the Twins have been dominant, ranking 4th in team batting average and 5th in home runs. Matt Wallner has been particularly hot, hitting .421 with a 1.364 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Giants have struggled with power, ranking 20th in home runs. Patrick Bailey has been their standout recently, boasting a .409 batting average and 1.116 OPS over the past six games.

The betting markets anticipate a close contest, with the Giants' moneyline at -120, implying a 52% win probability, while the Twins are at +100 with a 48% win probability. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting an expected average-scoring affair.

Given the pitching matchup and recent hitting streaks, the Giants might hold a slight edge, especially if Blake Snell can maintain his form and limit his walks and hits. However, the Twins' potent offense poses a significant challenge, making this a game worth watching for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack turned in a great performance in his last game started and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Despite posting a .377 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jose Miranda has been lucky given the .067 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .310.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Blake Snell has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 4.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Over the last 14 days, Brett Wisely's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Heliot Ramos has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.95 Units / 56% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.73 vs San Francisco Giants 4.42

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