Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/12/2024

Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants will host the Minnesota Twins at Oracle Park on July 12, 2024, in the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are experiencing contrasting seasons, with the Giants holding a below-average 45-49 record, while the Twins boast a solid 53-40 record, putting them in a good position for postseason contention.

San Francisco's Kyle Harrison, a left-handed pitcher, will take the mound against Joe Ryan, a right-hander for Minnesota. Harrison has had a turbulent season, posting a 4-4 record and a 4.24 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, his xERA of 4.79 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and might struggle going forward. On the other hand, Ryan has been stellar, holding a 6-5 record with a dazzling 3.29 ERA, ranking him as the #19 best starting pitcher in MLB.

The Giants have an average offense ranked 14th in MLB, with their team batting average sitting at 15th. However, their power numbers are less impressive, ranking 21st in home runs and dead last in stolen bases. Conversely, the Twins have one of the most potent offenses, ranking 3rd overall, 5th in batting average, and 4th in home runs, although their stolen base numbers are subpar at 25th.

San Francisco's bullpen is strong, ranking 4th in MLB, but Minnesota's bullpen is even better, holding the top spot in the rankings. This matchup could come down to how well the starters perform, given both teams' strong relief corps.

Harrison will face a high-flyball rate against a powerful Twins lineup, which could spell trouble for the Giants. Meanwhile, Ryan's excellent control may neutralize San Francisco's patient approach at the plate, as the Giants rank 6th in drawing walks but might struggle to exploit this strength against Ryan's low walk rate.

Betting markets favor the Twins with a moneyline of -135, implying a 55% chance of victory, while the Giants are at +115, suggesting a 45% chance. Despite the close odds, Minnesota's superior season, elite starting pitching, and powerful offense give them the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's four-seam fastball utilization has fallen by 8.3% from last year to this one (56.9% to 48.6%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Manuel Margot has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .279 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .333 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Carlos Correa ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Kyle Harrison’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2168 rpm) has been quite a bit lower than than his seasonal rate (2219 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Wilmer Flores has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 54 games (+13.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 75 games (+10.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Byron Buxton has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 36% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.33 vs San Francisco Giants 3.77

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