Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Prediction – 8/11/2025
The Minnesota Twins will head to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees on Monday night. The Yankees enter the day a half-game up in the race for the final Wild Card spot in the American League and will look to preserve their lead with a win at home. Before first pitch between Minnesota and New York, I have taken a look at this game and given you my Twins vs Yankees prediction below.
Our Twins vs Yankees Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees
- Date & Time: Monday, August 11, 2025, 7:05 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Zebby Matthews (3-3, 5.17 ERA) vs Will Warren (6-5, 4.44 ERA)
- Stadium: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Zebby Matthews and Will Warren will get the starts for their respective teams in this game. Matthews has struggled for the Twins in limited action since returning from injury and has an ERA over 5.00 for the season. Warren’s numbers aren’t much better but he has shown some flashes of brilliance for the Yankees at times this year.
Key Players
- Aaron Judge (NYY): Judge leads the Yankees in home runs, batting average, and RBI. But he is batting just .200 since returning from a stint on the IL.
- Byron Buxton (MIN): The Twins’ leader in batting average, home runs, and RBI is set to return from a trip to the IL in this series.
Recent team streaks
- Twins: Minnesota has won four of its last five games and took two out of three from the Royals in their last series.
- Yankees: The Yankees lost two out of three to the Houston Astros in their most recent series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Category | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Will Warren (NYY) | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first game between the Yankees and Twins this season.
- These teams will play six games against each other between this game and the end of the regular season.
- Minnesota is 24-36 on the road this season.
- The Yankees are 35-24 at home for the year.
- Minnesota is 40-38 against American League opponents.
- New York is 42-34 against teams from the American League.
Twins vs Yankees Model Projection
Score Projection: Yankees 6 – Twins 4
Win Probability: Yankees 64%, Twins 36%
Final Thoughts
I’m not sure I trust either starting pitcher to deliver in this game. With Buxton coming back for the Twins and Judge back in the lineup for New York, I think we could see some struggles from both Matthews and Warren here. Instead of taking either side and backing a flimsy starting pitcher, I’ll take the over here with the expectation of some offensive fireworks in the Bronx.
