Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks 7/29/2024

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 29, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets and Minnesota Twins are set to face off on July 29, 2024, at Citi Field in an intriguing interleague matchup. The Mets, currently holding a 55-50 record, are having an above-average season and look to build on their momentum. The Twins, with a strong 58-46 record, are also enjoying a good season. This game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

The Mets will send left-hander Jose Quintana to the mound. Quintana, ranked #157 among starting pitchers according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, has struggled this season. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings with 2.5 earned runs, 4.6 strikeouts, 5.3 hits allowed, and 1.6 walks. These numbers are less than impressive, indicating that Quintana is likely to face difficulties against a capable Twins lineup.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with right-hander Simeon Woods Richard. Also struggling, Woods Richard is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, 4.3 strikeouts, 4.8 hits, and 1.6 walks. While his earned run projection is average, his hit and walk allowances are problematic.

Offensively, the Mets hold an edge with their #10 ranking in team batting average and #4 ranking in home runs. Their lineup, led recently by Francisco Lindor, who boasts a .276 batting average and a 1.171 OPS over the last week, has been productive. Lindor has racked up 8 hits, 6 runs, 10 RBIs, and 5 home runs in his last 7 games, making him a significant threat.

The Twins' offense, meanwhile, ranks #7 in team batting average and #8 in home runs. Matt Wallner has been their standout performer over the last 7 games, hitting .417 with a 1.617 OPS, including 5 hits and 2 home runs in just 4 games.

Current betting lines favor the Mets with a moneyline of -120, implying a 52% win probability. The Twins, at +100, have an implied win probability of 48%. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, expect a close, competitive game. Given the Mets' offensive firepower and slight edge in pitching, they are poised to take the first game of this series.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 6.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.1) suggests that Royce Lewis has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his 45.0 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected offense today (.309 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .324 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

This season, Jose Quintana has added a new pitch to his arsenal (a slider), throwing it on 5.4% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Jeff McNeil is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 50 games (+13.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 86 games (+7.80 Units / 6% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 23 games (+8.45 Units / 37% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.22 vs New York Mets 4.61

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