Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 5/18/2025

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on May 18, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Brewers, sitting at 21-25, are struggling this season, while the Twins hold a respectable 26-20 record. This game marks the third in their series, and the Brewers will be looking to capitalize on their home field advantage at American Family Field after a tough 7-0 loss yesterday.

Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for Milwaukee, boasting an excellent ERA of 2.66 this season. Despite his solid performance, his 3.86 xFIP suggests some luck may have played a role, indicating potential regression. Peralta has shown he can go deep into games, averaging 5.9 innings pitched, but he faces challenges with allowing more hits and walks than ideal. His ability to strike out 6.9 batters per game could be crucial in keeping the Twins' lineup in check.

On the other side, Zebby Matthews is slated to start for Minnesota. With a Power Ranking placing him as the 80th best starting pitcher, Matthews has been reliable, but his projected 4.9 innings pitched and average performance (2.3 earned runs allowed) may leave the Twins' bullpen to pick up the slack.

The Brewers' offense has struggled, ranking 24th in MLB and lacking in power with only the 26th most home runs this season. However, they do excel in stolen bases, which could play a role in their strategy. In contrast, the Twins have an average offensive ranking at 19th, but their recent form presents a threat.

With the Brewers favored at a moneyline of -155, they will need to leverage their pitching advantage and find ways to generate offense against a Twins team that has proven to be resilient. The low game total of 7.5 runs suggests a tightly contested matchup, and it will be interesting to see if Milwaukee can turn their season around with a strong performance today.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the strongest among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Kody Clemens is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Today’s version of the Twins projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .315 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta has averaged 93.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Joey Ortiz's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 87.8-mph mark last season has decreased to 83.9-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers batters as a unit grade out 30th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 6.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+10.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 34 games (+14.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+12.10 Units / 134% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.5, Milwaukee Brewers 4.11

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zebby Matthews - Twins
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

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