Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 5/17/2025

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Minnesota Twins on May 17, 2025, in a crucial Interleague matchup at American Family Field. The Brewers, currently sitting at 21-24, are struggling this season, while the Twins boast a stronger 25-20 record. In their last game, the Brewers faced off against the Twins and came up short, continuing their below-average performance.

On the mound, the Brewers are projected to start Tobias Myers, who has had a mixed season thus far. Although his ERA stands at a respectable 3.86, advanced metrics suggest he may have been fortunate, as his xFIP is significantly higher at 5.54. Myers has a high walk rate of 13.3%, which could be problematic against the Twins' low-walk offense, ranked 6th least in MLB. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, but with a troubling average of 4.9 hits allowed.

In contrast, the Twins will counter with Pablo Lopez, who has been excellent this season with a 2.77 ERA and a Power Ranking of 26th among MLB pitchers. Lopez has performed well in 7 starts, with a 3-2 record and a solid projection of 5.8 innings pitched today. However, he also faces challenges, as he is projected to allow 5.1 hits and 1.5 walks, both of which are concerning.

While the Brewers' offense ranks 24th in MLB, they lead the league in stolen bases, which could create opportunities for them. The Twins' offense ranks 18th overall, but they have shown potential. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a close contest is expected. With both teams sharing a moneyline of -110, the betting markets suggest a tight matchup where the Brewers might be undervalued given their potential to outperform expectations.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Given that groundball batters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Pablo Lopez (46% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 4 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Batters such as DaShawn Keirsey Jr. with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tobias Myers who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Today’s version of the Twins projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tobias Myers has gone to his non-fastballs 7.9% less often this year (51.4%) than he did last year (59.3%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Milwaukee Brewers hitters as a group rank 30th- in the league for power this year when using their 6.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.14, Milwaukee Brewers 3.75

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.