Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 5/16/2025

On May 16, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Minnesota Twins at American Family Field for the first game of their interleague series. The Brewers have struggled this season, currently sitting at 21-23, while the Twins are in a better position at 24-20. The Brewers' offense ranks a disappointing 25th in MLB, highlighting their struggles to generate runs, particularly with only 37 home runs on the year, tied for the 6th least in the league.

Starting for the Brewers is Chad Patrick, who has had a mixed season. Although his ERA stands at a commendable 3.19, advanced metrics suggest he may have been lucky so far, as his xFIP of 4.42 indicates room for regression. Conversely, the Twins will send out Joe Ryan, who has been exceptional with a 2.74 ERA and ranks as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB, a stark contrast to Patrick's 185th rank. Ryan's ability to limit runs could be a deciding factor in this matchup, especially against a Brewers lineup that has struggled to hit for power.

In their last game, the Twins showcased their offensive potential with a solid performance, which could give them momentum entering this matchup. The projections indicate a low-scoring game, with the Brewers’ current moneyline at -105 and the Twins at -115, reflecting a close contest. As the Twins' bullpen ranks 7th in MLB, they may have an advantage if the game is tight late. All eyes will be on how Chad Patrick holds up against the Twins' lineup, which, despite being ranked 21st in overall offense, should present a tougher challenge than the Brewers have faced recently.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Joe Ryan has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 11.6% less often this season (34%) than he did last season (45.6%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Ryan Jeffers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen ranks as the 7th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Chad Patrick's 86.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 3rd percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Christian Yelich may have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in their last 10 games (+11.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+14.10 Units / 201% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.32, Milwaukee Brewers 3.95

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.