Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 7/3/2025

The Minnesota Twins (41–45) head into LoanDepot Park this Thursday, July 3, as slight favorites over the Miami Marlins (38–46) in the rubber game of their three‑game series. Both clubs have stumbled through inconsistency, with Miami snapping an eight‑game winning streak with Wednesday’s 2–1 loss, and Minnesota managing a road split. With young arms David Festa and Eury Pérez toeing the rubber, bettors have plenty to consider. Here, we make our Twins vs Marlins prediction for Wednesday afternoon.

Our Twins vs Marlins Pick

  • Pick: Twins -1.5 (+143)
  • Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins
  • Date & Time: Thursday, July 3, 2025, 12:10 p.m. EDT
  • Starting Pitchers: David Festa (MIN, R) vs Eury Pérez (MIA, R)
  • Stadium: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
  • Broadcast: MLB Network, FDSFL, MNNT

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

David Festa (2–2, 5.40 ERA) has high strikeout potential, with 9.3 K/9, and six strikeouts in his last outing against Detroit. But he’s allowed 6 HR in 36.2 innings and manages just 4.5 innings per start. Festa’s reverse splits overstate his effectiveness against right‑handers, but recent sharpness suggests he could handcuff Miami’s offense early.

Eury Pérez (0–2, 6.19 ERA) has yet to reach five innings in any of his four 2025 starts, with control issues (5.6 BB/9) and a 1.50 WHIP. His command lapses are too frequent. Miami has gone 2–2 in these starts, and their offense was cooled off yesterday, as they will look to get back on track and start a new winning streak today.

Bullpen Usage

The Twins’ bullpen showed depth in Wednesday’s opener, combining for five relief innings in a tight 2–1 win. Miami’s bullpen also pitched well yesterday, as both teams hope for similar contributions from their pens to what we saw yesterday.

Recent Team Streaks

  • The Under is 25‑18 in Marlins home games.
  • Miami snapped its eight‑game win streak with Wednesday’s loss.
  • These teams have split the first two games of their three-game series.
  • The total has gone under in 4 of the Twins’ last 5 games.

Best Player Props

PlayerPropLine
Byron Buxton (MIN)Total BasesOver 1.5 (+110)
David Festa (MIN)StrikeoutsOver 5.5 (+115)
Eury Pérez (MIA)WalksOver 2.5 (–120)
  • Twins are 19-28 on the road this season.
  • The Marlins rank second in the league in win percentage on the runline this year (58.3%)

Twins vs Marlins Model Projection

Score Projection: Twins 6 – Marlins 4

Win Probability: Twins 55%, Marlins 45%

Final Thoughts

LoanDepot’s surprising homer-friendly atmosphere, warm afternoon conditions, and two inconsistent right‑handers favor a series win for Minnesota. Buxton’s home run prop is another angle worth playing. We expect a close contest with timely Twins offense pulling away late in a 6–4 win and Minnesota covering the runline.

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Home MLB Picks Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 7/3/2025