Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Pick – 7/2/2025

Sometimes interleague play gives you dream matchups between some of the biggest names in baseball. Other times, it gives you matchups between the Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins. Here is a detailed preview of tonight’s matchup between the Twins and Marlins, including my Twins vs Marlins prediction in the betting markets.

Our Twins vs Marlins Pick

  • Pick: Miami Marlins moneyline (+107)
  • Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins
  • Date & Time: Wednesday, July 2, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Twins – Simeon Woods Richardson (3‑4, 4.63 ERA)
    • Marlins – Janson Junk (2‑0, 3.73 ERA)
  • Stadium: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
  • Broadcast: FDSFL (Florida), MNNT (Minnesota)

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

  • Simeon Woods Richardson seeks consistency after a dominant five shutout innings in his last start against Seattle. But overall, his 4.63 ERA indicates inconsistency.
  • Janson Junk is off to a 2-0 start this season. However, he gave up five earned runs to the San Francisco Giants in his last start and was bailed out by an offense that put up 12 runs in that game.

Bullpen Usage

  • Marlins’ pen has been busy through their eight-game win streak, but they are taking care of business for now.
  • Twins have leaned heavily on relievers this month, raising fatigue concerns, especially on the road.

Recent Team Streaks

  • Miami has won their last eight games going into Wednesday’s play.
  • Minnesota has lost three games in a row and seven of their last 10.

Best Player Props

PlayerPropDetail
Byron BuxtonHome runsOver 0.5 (+320)
Brooks LeeTotal basesOver 1.5 (+125)
Kyle StowersTotal basesOver 1.5 (+150)
Otto LopezHome runsOver 0.5 (+600)
  • Marlins are 5-0 in their last five games, Twins 2-3 in their last 5.
  • The Marlins have seen 10+ combined runs in four of their last five games.
  • Twins are 18-28 on the road this year, Marlins are 18-24 at home.

Twins vs Marlins Model Projection

Score Projection: Twins 4 – Marlins 5

Win Probability: Twins 52%, Marlins 48%

Final Thoughts

Miami’s offense has surged during their recent eight-game win streak, while Junk appears composed, and Woods Richardson remains unpredictable. The Twins are favored, but recent performance suggests to me that the value lies with the Marlins at plus money. The under 8.5 is tempting given that the last game between these teams ended 2-0, but I prefer to take the Marlins on the moneyline instead.

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Home MLB Picks Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Pick – 7/2/2025