Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Pick – 7/2/2025

Sometimes interleague play gives you dream matchups between some of the biggest names in baseball. Other times, it gives you matchups between the Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins. Here is a detailed preview of tonight’s matchup between the Twins and Marlins, including my Twins vs Marlins prediction in the betting markets.

Our Twins vs Marlins Pick

• Pick: Miami Marlins moneyline (+107)
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 2, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Twins – Simeon Woods Richardson (3‑4, 4.63 ERA)
  • Marlins – Janson Junk (2‑0, 3.73 ERA)
• Stadium: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
• Broadcast: FDSFL (Florida), MNNT (Minnesota)

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Simeon Woods Richardson seeks consistency after a dominant five shutout innings in his last start against Seattle. But overall, his 4.63 ERA indicates inconsistency.
• Janson Junk is off to a 2-0 start this season. However, he gave up five earned runs to the San Francisco Giants in his last start and was bailed out by an offense that put up 12 runs in that game.

Bullpen Usage

• Marlins’ pen has been busy through their eight-game win streak, but they are taking care of business for now.
• Twins have leaned heavily on relievers this month, raising fatigue concerns, especially on the road.

Recent Team Streaks

• Miami has won their last eight games going into Wednesday’s play.
• Minnesota has lost three games in a row and seven of their last 10.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Marlins are 5-0 in their last five games, Twins 2-3 in their last 5.
• The Marlins have seen 10+ combined runs in four of their last five games.
• Twins are 18-28 on the road this year, Marlins are 18-24 at home.

Twins vs Marlins Model Projection

Score Projection: Twins 4 – Marlins 5

Win Probability: Twins 52%, Marlins 48%

Final Thoughts

Miami’s offense has surged during their recent eight-game win streak, while Junk appears composed, and Woods Richardson remains unpredictable. The Twins are favored, but recent performance suggests to me that the value lies with the Marlins at plus money. The under 8.5 is tempting given that the last game between these teams ended 2-0, but I prefer to take the Marlins on the moneyline instead.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.