Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Pick – 7/1/2025

The Minnesota Twins head to Miami to take on the Marlins at loanDepot Park on Tuesday, July 1, 2025, in an interleague showdown. With both teams hovering around .500, with the Twins at 40–44 and Marlins at 37–45, this series opener is big for both squads searching for momentum. Continue reading to get my Twins vs Marlins prediction for Tuesday.

Our Twins vs Marlins Prediction

Pick: Minnesota Twins moneyline

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 1, 2025 – 6:40 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Joe Ryan (MIN) vs Edward Cabrera (MIA)
• Stadium: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
• Broadcast: FanDuel Sports Network Florida and MNNT

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Joe Ryan is 8–3 with a 2.86 ERA and 104 strikeouts in 16 starts. He’s delivered quality starts in eight of 15 outings, and in his last three has turned in 6 IP, 8 Ks with two scoreless innings in his latest 2–0 shutout vs Seattle.
• Edward Cabrera sits at 2–2 with a 3.78 ERA and 69 punchouts. He’s had one quality start, averaging under five innings, and his control remains a concern with 29 walks in 64.1 innings.

Bullpen usage

• Twins’ relief corps have a 4.21 staff ERA and 725 Ks, though they’ve allowed 89 homers and converted just 55% of save chances.
• Marlins’ pen posts a 4.89 ERA, allows 5.26 runs per 9 innings, and has surrendered 97 home runs.

Recent team streaks

• Minnesota is 4–13 SU in its last 17, struggling on the road and vs NL foes.
• Miami is riding a hot streak, winning seven straight as underdogs, including a 6–4 win over Arizona to close their most recent series.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Twins are 15–6 when playing as at least –146 road favorites.
• Marlins are 26–26 in games set to 7.5 total.
• Miami has gone 8–2 ATS in the last 10 as ML underdog; Twins are 42–38 ATS overall.

Twins vs Marlins Model Projection

Score Projection: Twins 5 – Marlins 4

Win Probability: Twins 59%, Marlins 41%

Final Thoughts

Joe Ryan’s elite strikeout control and consistency give the Twins the edge even in hostile territory. Miami’s confidence is high, but their bullpen and Cabrera’s low ceiling keep my lean on the road team. My model supports a moneyline angle on Minnesota, and combining it with Ryan’s strikeout prop builds a compelling case. Expect a tight win for the Twins to open the series.