Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 8, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race within the American League Central. The Royals currently hold a record of 78-65, while the Twins sit at 76-66, making this matchup critical as they vie for postseason positioning. In their last game, the Royals were able to secure a victory, and the Twins are looking to get back on track after that defeat on Saturday.

In this series, the Royals will send Michael Wacha to the mound, who has been a reliable arm this season with an 11-7 record and a solid 3.50 ERA. Wacha ranks as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, indicating he has performed above average this year. However, projections suggest he may face challenges today, as he is expected to allow 2.4 earned runs over approximately 5.4 innings, coupled with a concerning average of 4.9 hits and 1.6 walks allowed.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richard, who has struggled with consistency. With a 5-3 record and a 3.95 ERA, he is viewed as a below-average pitcher. His projections indicate he could pitch only 4.8 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs, making him vulnerable against a Royals offense that ranks 12th overall in MLB this season.

As the game approaches, the Royals hold a slight edge with a moneyline of -120, reflecting a 52% implied win probability. With both teams showcasing above-average seasons, this matchup promises to be a closely contested battle, crucial for their playoff aspirations. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive game ahead.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson has a reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of being matched up with 6 same-handed bats in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Matt Wallner has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.9-mph average to last year's 97.1-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Compared to their .320 overall projected rate, the .305 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Minnesota Twins projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup significantly weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's fastball velocity has risen 1.6 mph this season (93 mph) over where it was last year (91.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Maikel Garcia has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .239 rate is quite a bit lower than his .279 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Kansas City Royals batters collectively have been one of the best in MLB this year (4th-) as far as their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games at home (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.45 Units / 56% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 41 games (+12.75 Units / 26% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.26 vs Kansas City Royals 4.84

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