Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 9/7/2025
The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals will close out their three-game series from Kansas City on Sunday. The Royals have dominated this series so far, winning the first two games in front of their home crowd. Can the Royals close out a huge three-game sweep for their playoff hopes or will the Twins salvage a game today? Continue reading to get my Twins vs Royals prediction for Sunday’s matchup in the AL Central.
Our Twins vs Royals Pick
- Pick: Royals moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Head-to-Head: Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 7, 2025, 2:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Bailey Ober vs Michael Lorenzen
- Stadium: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Minnesota’s road form has sagged. The team is 17 games below .500 on the road for the year and are in danger of being swept in KC this weekend.
- The Royals are right in the thick of the American League Wild Card race. Kansas City is one game back of the Seattle Mariners for the final American League Wild Card spot heading into this matchup and could be tied with Seattle by the end of the day.
Pitching matchup
- Bailey Ober: Ober enters the weekend with a 5.23 ERA with a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP in the mid-1.3s. His raw stuff can miss bats but he has also give up a whopping 29 home runs on the season.
- Michael Lorenzen: Lorenzen enters this contest with a 4.54 ERA and similar WHIP to that of Ober. Lorenzen’s tendencies lean to soft contact and quick innings when his command is on point. He is not a big strikeout arm, which places emphasis on Kansas City’s infield defense behind him.
Recent team streaks
- The Twins have lost six games in a row coming into this contest in Kansas City.
- The Royals have won three straight games and will look for a fourth in a row today.
Best Player Props
| Prop | Player |
|---|---|
| 1+ Home Run | Vinnie Pasquantino |
| Under 4.5 Strikeouts | Bailey Ober |
| Over 3.5 Strikeouts | Michael Lorenzen |
| Over 1.5 Total Bases | Bobby Witt Jr. |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Royals hold a 7-5 lead in their season series against the Twins this year.
- This game is the final regular-season meeting scheduled between the Royals and Twins this year.
- The Royals have outscored the Twins 13-3 in this weekend’s series.
Twins vs Royals Model Projection
Score Projection: Twins 3 – Royals 4
Win Probability: Twins 46%, Royals 54%
Final Thoughts
The Kansas City Royals are rising to the challenge in the AL Wild Card race. They are playing very good baseball of late to give themselves a chance to make it to October. I think that the Royals will keep rolling in this game, taking advantage of Ober’s struggles on the mound for Minnesota to secure a three-game sweep.
